Virtuous Cycle? A Little Early Success Goes A Long Way, Study Finds

By Amina Khan
Los Angeles Times.

Does success breed success?

It’s a pressing question in an era where the economic gap between the richest 1 percent of the population and the other 99 percent has been growing for years.

Now scientists cruising the interwebs have found that a little initial success that’s not based on merit really can create a positive feedback mechanism, widening the disparity between those who do and don’t get the early win.

The findings, published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, show that a little nudge goes a long way, though there are limits to the effect.

The international team of researchers ran a real-world experiment on a wide variety of efforts, including fundraising drives, political causes and product reviews.

They did it in an arena in which they could easily introduce a “success” into a system and track its potential effects: the Web, specifically the websites Kickstarter, Epinions.com, Wikipedia and Change.org.

The scientists sampled 200 unfunded Kickstarter campaigns and made a donation to 100 of them, to see if those who got the initial money did better than those who didn’t.

They took 305 new, unrated product reviews at Epinions.com and gave some of them a “very helpful” rating. They sampled 521 top-rated editors at Wikipedia and gave a portion of them an award for their work. They looked at 200 early campaigns on Change.org and gave 100 of them a dozen signatures each.

Then they watched what happened with those that received the early initial success compared with those that did not.

In all four cases, those that received the initial success, the donation, the high rating, the award or the signatures, ended up more successful as a group than did those that didn’t experience the same early success.

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